Presented by: Mariana Nagy-Reis & Chris Johnson

A recurring challenge for resource managers and decision makers is quantifying the trade-offs associated with alternative recovery actions for species-at-risk. Provincial and federal agencies have either employed or planned to employ recovery actions to halt precipitous declines in woodland caribou populations. Nonetheless, testing the efficacy of such actions on the ground is difficult due to insufficient time and limited replication. Here we showcase two modeling approaches developed independently to quantify trade-offs associated with tested and untested recovery actions for woodland caribou, including Linear Feature Restoration/Deactivation, Maternal Penning, Predator Exclosure, Conservation Breeding, Wolf Reduction, and Moose Reduction. More specifically, we compare the estimated costs and demographic benefits associated with each action and discuss knowledge gaps, limitations of tested recovery actions, and uncertainties associated with untested actions. The two case studies demonstrate the utility of forecasting tools to inform recovery actions and guide decisions by explicitly estimating trade-offs associated with actions, which ultimately can be used in structured-decision making approaches to help bridge the gap between management and science.